No, Goldman Sachs isn’t a bearish indicator for Bitcoin

No, Goldman Sachs isn’t a bearish indicator for Bitcoin

Peter Brandt, a well-liked veteran dealer and CEO of proprietary buying and selling agency Issue LLC, just lately gave his ideas on Goldman Sachs doubtlessly restarting its cryptocurrency desk.

On Dec. 21, 2017, the same Bloomberg piece said that Goldman Sachs would arrange a cryptocurrency buying and selling desk, though the financial institution was “nonetheless attempting to work out safety points.”

Though Brandt’s chart appears vital, one wants to know that such hypothesis had been ongoing for a few months. Wall Road Journal already lined Goldman Sachs’ intention to do that on Oct. 2, 2017.

Even when we disregard the precise date, Goldman Sachs apparently ditched these plans to launch its Bitcoin (BTC) buying and selling desk. However, extra importantly, there aren’t many similarities between the 2017 bull run and the present market by way of their construction.

Bitcoin market cap, quantity late-2017, USD billion. Supply: TradingView

Take discover of how BTC quantity soared from a $2 billion common each day quantity in November 2017 to $14.6 billion by year-end, a seven-fold improve. The incoming retail demand was so spectacular that it precipitated Binance, Bitfinex, and Bittrex exchanges to reject new customers briefly.

Binance accounts had been even offered by customers on to different customers on the time when no new sign-ups had been being accepted. In different phrases, there’s at the moment no retail frenzy in Bitcoin much like what occurred in late 2017. The truth is, the present bull cycle seems to be pushed by establishments which are seemingly scooping up BTC on each dip. 

Bitcoin market cap, quantity, USD billion. Supply: TradingView

In the meantime, the $66 billion each day common traded quantity seen on Feb. 22, 2021, as Bitcoin’s market capitalization peaked at $1.09 trillion, has been comparatively flat for the earlier six weeks.

Due to this fact, an skilled technical analyst akin to Brandt ought to have added the caveat that quantity is probably the most related market participation indicator (which he continuously emphasizes in his different evaluation). 

To settle this distinction for good, one wants to know the fundamentals of futures markets. Derivatives exchanges cost both perpetual futures longs (consumers) or shorts (sellers) a payment each eight hours to maintain a balanced threat publicity. This indicator, often known as the funding charge, will flip constructive when longs are those demanding extra leverage.

Bitmex BTC perpetual futures weekly funding charge, late-2017. Supply: TradingView

Because the above chart signifies, consumers had been keen to pay as much as 40% per week to leverage their lengthy positions. That is completely unsustainable and an indication of utmost optimism. Any market downturn would have precipitated cascading liquidations, with the BTC value accelerating to the draw back.

BitMEX BTC perpetual futures weekly funding charge. Supply: TradingView

Such exorbitant charges now not exist, albeit the present 4% weekly funding charge has been the very best since June 2019. Nonetheless, scales of magnitude decrease than late-2017 outrageous retail-driven lengthy leverage frenzy.

Lastly, one ought to consider that December 2017 marked the launch of CME and CBOE futures contracts. As Cointelegraph astutely put again then: This unprecedented occasion might have a big impression on the Bitcoin financial system.” Looking back, this appears to have been the height euphoria sign the bears had been ready for. Thus, Goldman Sachs balking was seemingly the impact, not the trigger. 

However whereas Brandt has change into well-known within the cryptocurrency house for anticipating the 80%+ correction after the 2017 Bitcoin value high, his monitor document has been much less spectacular in current occasions. 

So to sum up, there’s zero proof to help Peter Brandt’s concept in addition to a single occasion that occurred as soon as within the 11 years of Bitcoin buying and selling. To not point out that the 2017 Goldman Sachs cryptocurrency buying and selling desk rumors had been going for some time.

The views and opinions expressed listed here are solely these of the author and don’t essentially mirror the views of Cointelegraph. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes threat. You must conduct your individual analysis when making a call.